As temperatures continue to rise, the use of air conditioners is becoming more prevalent. However, a recent study published in the journal Scientific Reports warns that the increased use of air conditioning could generate millions of metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050. The study, conducted by environmental economists from Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, CMCC, RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment and Boston University, is the first to illustrate the impacts of climate change on the demand for air conditioners and electricity for cooling in Europe and India.
Risks of Increasing Air Conditioning Use
According to the study, there is a risk of a mismatch between what is done for adaptation and mitigation, with increased emissions as a result. The study estimates that by 2050, under a +2/-3 °C warming forecast, air-conditioning uptake could double in Europe and grow fourfold in India, reaching about 40% of homes in both regions. This rush to buy new air conditioners in the residential sector and the resulting increased use of electricity associated will characterize both relatively richer but more temperate European countries, and relatively poorer but warmer Indian states.
Impact on Emissions
The increased use of air conditioning will have a strong impact on emissions. Between now and 2050, the energy production required by the increased use of air conditioners will cause a rise in annual CO2 emissions between 7 and 17 million tons in Europe, and between 38 and 160 million tons in India. The study warns that air conditioning as a heat adaptation strategy risks undermining mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Possible Solutions
The study concludes that mitigating these increases would require a significantly higher energy efficiency of air conditioners sold or a further push towards decarbonization of energy production, including more stringent greenhouse-gas mitigation targets that could increase carbon prices. In Italy, peak annual demand is estimated to increase by around 10 GW, a 16% increase over current levels, in a high warming scenario.
While air conditioning brings benefits to the population by reducing the heat exposure connected to global warming, it also highlights the need for more sustainable cooling solutions. Researchers estimate that cooling technologies will lead the population to be exposed to 40% less heat in Europe and 35% less in India by 2050.
The study emphasizes the need for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector. The rise in air conditioning use could generate millions of metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, which could undermine efforts to mitigate climate change. While air conditioning helps alleviate the heat exposure connected to global warming, alternative sustainable cooling solutions are needed to reduce the impact on emissions.
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